Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | DREX +100 UNCW +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +1 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -2.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -0.4 (-0.6) | 129.6 (+13.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -0.4 (-1.4) | 127.1 (+15.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -0.0 (-1.0) | 129.9 (+13.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -0.2 (-1.2) | 130.1 (+12.9) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 53 DREX |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCW 81 – 79 DREX |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 56 DREX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | DREX 78 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 5, 2023 | UNCW 73 – 68 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#195) | 0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#200) | 1.25 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#200) | 1.38 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#206) | 0.553 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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