Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -900 DREX +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -14.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -11.9 (+0.1) | 134.8 (-16.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -11.7 (+0.3) | 133.7 (-15.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -10.8 (+1.2) | 135.3 (-17.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -10.8 (+1.2) | 136.4 (-18.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCW 81 – 79 DREX |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 56 DREX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | DREX 78 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 5, 2023 | UNCW 73 – 68 DREX |
| Feb 17, 2023 | UNCW 72 – 71 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 12-2 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#126) | -7.6 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#114) | -1.72 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#124) | -2.31 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#106) | 0.388 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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