Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -0.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -1.5 (+3.5) | 128.6 (+12.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -0.9 (+4.1) | 127.6 (+13.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.0 (+4.0) | 128.8 (+12.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -0.9 (+4.1) | 129.3 (+11.7) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 53 DREX |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCW 81 – 79 DREX |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 56 DREX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | DREX 78 – 63 UNCW |
| Feb 17, 2023 | UNCW 72 – 71 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#176) | -1.0 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#95) | -0.41 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#107) | -0.45 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#82) | 0.489 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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