Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -175 DREX +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +19 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -2.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -3.2 (+15.8) | 138.0 (-7.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -1.8 (+17.2) | 136.5 (-5.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -3.3 (+15.7) | 137.7 (-6.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.5 (+15.5) | 137.2 (-6.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 53 DREX |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCW 81 – 79 DREX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | DREX 78 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 5, 2023 | UNCW 73 – 68 DREX |
| Feb 17, 2023 | UNCW 72 – 71 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 10-6 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#118) | 4.2 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#84) | 0.40 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#94) | 0.47 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#57) | 0.526 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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