Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | DREX -120 UNCW +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +15 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -3.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -3.9 (+11.1) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -3.4 (+11.6) | 141.9 (-0.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -2.5 (+12.5) | 142.0 (-1.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -2.8 (+12.2) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 53 DREX |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCW 81 – 79 DREX |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 56 DREX |
| Mar 5, 2023 | UNCW 73 – 68 DREX |
| Feb 17, 2023 | UNCW 72 – 71 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#125) | 3.6 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#164) | 1.50 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#180) | 1.58 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#171) | 0.566 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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