Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | DREX +125 UNCW -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -1.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -0.7 (-1.3) | 137.6 (+22.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -0.8 (-1.2) | 136.1 (+23.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -0.4 (-1.6) | 136.3 (+23.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -0.2 (-1.8) | 139.3 (+20.7) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 53 DREX |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 56 DREX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | DREX 78 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 5, 2023 | UNCW 73 – 68 DREX |
| Feb 17, 2023 | UNCW 72 – 71 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#186) | 2.7 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#217) | 0.86 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#214) | 0.85 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#224) | 0.546 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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