Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | OMA -110 SDAK +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | OMA -4.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -1.6 (+6.4) | 147.6 (+4.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OMA -0.1 (+7.9) | 145.7 (+6.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -1.5 (+6.5) | 147.6 (+4.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -1.7 (+6.3) | 148.3 (+3.7) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | OMA 76 – 62 SDAK |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDAK 89 – 72 OMA |
| Jan 22, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 64 OMA |
| Mar 9, 2025 | OMA 100 – 75 SDAK |
| Feb 23, 2025 | OMA 93 – 85 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-15 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#314) | -8.8 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#295) | -0.81 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#294) | -1.19 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#276) | 0.455 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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