Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Over |
| Money | OMA -200 SDAK +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +8 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | OMA -5.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -4.9 (+3.1) | 168.1 (+9.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OMA -5.6 (+2.4) | 164.7 (+13.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -5.7 (+2.3) | 168.0 (+10.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -4.3 (+3.7) | 169.3 (+8.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | OMA 76 – 62 SDAK |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDAK 89 – 72 OMA |
| Jan 22, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 64 OMA |
| Mar 9, 2025 | OMA 100 – 75 SDAK |
| Jan 30, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 87 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 86.6 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#188) | -4.1 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#169) | -0.41 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#190) | -0.80 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#174) | 0.474 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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