Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | OMA -200 SDAK +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +25 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | OMA -2.7 (+22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OMA -3.9 (+21.1) | 160.5 (+14.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -5.4 (+19.6) | 162.7 (+12.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -5.0 (+20.0) | 162.3 (+12.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -4.6 (+20.4) | 163.9 (+11.1) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | OMA 76 – 62 SDAK |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDAK 89 – 72 OMA |
| Jan 22, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 64 OMA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | OMA 93 – 85 SDAK |
| Jan 30, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 87 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 86.6 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#168) | -3.3 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#161) | -0.37 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#180) | -0.77 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#146) | 0.477 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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