Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UL -1200 ULM +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +17 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UL -13.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -11.4 (+5.6) | 144.5 (+6.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -11.0 (+6.0) | 142.9 (+8.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -10.7 (+6.3) | 145.6 (+5.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -10.8 (+6.2) | 145.7 (+5.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UL 85 – 79 ULM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UL 76 – 62 ULM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UL 73 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UL 65 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UL 71 – 68 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-0 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#103) | -5.7 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#69) | -0.81 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#71) | -0.94 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#55) | 0.463 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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