Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU +138 FAU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -4.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -3.4 (+7.4) | 146.5 (-2.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -2.9 (+6.9) | 146.2 (-2.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -4.2 (+8.2) | 148.3 (-4.3) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -3.6 (+7.6) | 149.3 (-5.3) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2023 | FAU 68 – 65 MTSU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | FAU 85 – 67 MTSU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | MTSU 87 – 79 FAU |
| Jan 14, 2022 | MTSU 70 – 57 FAU |
| Mar 5, 2021 | FAU 63 – 54 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 18-2 |
| Home | 12-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 3-11 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#124) | 11.2 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#115) | 2.91 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#129) | 2.97 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#81) | 0.616 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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