Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | FAU -500 MTSU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +18 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -11.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -10.2 (+7.8) | 135.9 (+16.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -8.9 (+9.1) | 134.8 (+17.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -10.5 (+7.5) | 137.5 (+14.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -9.6 (+8.4) | 137.0 (+15.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2023 | FAU 68 – 65 MTSU |
| Feb 17, 2023 | MTSU 74 – 70 FAU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | MTSU 87 – 79 FAU |
| Jan 14, 2022 | MTSU 70 – 57 FAU |
| Mar 5, 2021 | FAU 63 – 54 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 12-2 |
| Away | 11-3 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#30) | 3.8 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#7) | 0.84 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#18) | 0.82 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#18) | 0.565 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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