Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Ohio Valley Conference · Hooper Eblen Center · February 17, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TNTC -6.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Over
Money TNTC -275 / LIN +260
Model Predictions
Spread Total TNTC win
Actual TNTC +9 145 Won
Massey TNTC -7.4 (+1.6)
Massey Totals 139.0 (+6.0)
Bradley-Terry 79%
Weighted B-T 81%
Efficiency Plus ML TNTC -4.4 (+4.6) 141.5 (+3.5) 74%
Baseline Tuned ML TNTC -5.0 (+4.0) 141.2 (+3.8) 69%
Baseline ML TNTC -5.2 (+3.8) 142.5 (+2.5) 71%
Baseline Plus ML TNTC -5.2 (+3.8) 142.9 (+2.1) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 21, 2026 TNTC 7257 LIN
Jan 23, 2026 LIN 8968 TNTC
Mar 1, 2025 LIN 7674 TNTC
Dec 20, 2024 TNTC 7973 LIN
Feb 10, 2024 TNTC 6253 LIN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TNTC LIN
Overall 16-17 11-21
Conference 11-7 6-12
Home 11-5 9-4
Away 4-11 2-14
Neutral 1-1 0-3
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.1 67.6
Avg Pts Against 75.1 76.1
Massey -7.4 (#294) -11.1 (#341)
Bradley-Terry -1.32 (#293) -2.00 (#339)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.63 (#292) -2.32 (#334)
RPI 0.443 (#287) 0.400 (#344)
Shooting & Four Factors TNTC LIN
FG% 43.0% 41.8%
3PT% 36.8% 35.6%
REB / G 32.8 32.8
OREB / G 8.2 8.2
AST / TO 1.02 0.80
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.6% 48.2%
TOV% 18.6% 20.0%
ORB% 23.4% 23.2%
FT Rate 20.8% 18.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.8% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 18.2%
DRB% 69.4% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 18.4% 21.9%

Game Analysis

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