Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Big Sky Conference · The Nest · February 17, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SAC -2.5 Away covered
O/U 125.5 Under
Money SAC -138 / WEB +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total SAC win
Actual WEB +3 101 Lost
Massey SAC -2.6 (-5.6) — —
Massey Totals — 127.4 (-26.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 59% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 64% ✗
Baseline Plus ML SAC -1.2 (-4.2) 132.4 (-31.4) 53% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ WEB -0.3 (-2.7) 126.8 (-25.8) 51% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML SAC -1.5 (-4.5) 134.0 (-33.0) 58% ✗
Baseline ML SAC -1.3 (-4.3) 135.1 (-34.1) 57% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 3, 2026 SAC 104 – 90 WEB
Jan 4, 2026 WEB 95 – 82 SAC
Mar 9, 2025 WEB 83 – 70 SAC
Feb 21, 2025 SAC 80 – 77 WEB
Jan 25, 2025 WEB 87 – 81 SAC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SAC WEB
Overall 14-18 18-15
Conference 7-11 12-6
Home 9-4 8-4
Away 5-10 8-8
Neutral 0-4 2-3
Last 5 0-5 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.1 66.3
Avg Pts Against 69.2 67.9
Massey -3.5 (#229) -2.4 (#216)
Bradley-Terry -0.61 (#237) -0.31 (#207)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.79 (#242) -0.61 (#229)
RPI 0.471 (#233) 0.475 (#226)
Shooting & Four Factors SAC WEB
FG% 43.9% 44.4%
3PT% 35.4% 33.1%
REB / G 35.2 30.2
OREB / G 11.3 6.2
AST / TO 1.03 0.80
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.2% 50.8%
TOV% 20.2% 19.8%
ORB% 33.5% 19.9%
FT Rate 18.9% 26.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.7% 53.9%
Opp TOV% 14.5% 19.4%
DRB% 74.8% 78.3%
Opp FT Rate 17.1% 22.6%

Game Analysis

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