Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | DEN +145 SDST -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -3.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -2.8 (-2.2) | 144.5 (+10.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -4.9 (-0.1) | 141.7 (+13.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -2.4 (-2.6) | 145.2 (+9.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -2.5 (-2.5) | 145.3 (+9.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | DEN 79 – 61 SDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SDST 87 – 79 DEN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DEN 78 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SDST 91 – 70 DEN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SDST 76 – 68 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#295) | -0.7 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#268) | 0.49 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#278) | 0.08 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#306) | 0.558 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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