I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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76–41 on winners spread MAE 9.5 117 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Yale @ Pennsylvania -2.3 144.9 41% 64–66 ✗
Harvard @ Columbia -8.3 141.3 19% 83–65 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +5.5 145.8 74% 67–78 ✓
Canisius @ Rider +8.6 141.6 81% 81–78 ✗
Niagara @ Mount St. Mary's -0.1 133.1 44% 66–70 ✗
Fairfield @ Marist -0.3 130.8 40% 70–61 ✓
Manhattan @ Iona +17.0 141.8 89% 60–71 ✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -8.2 135.6 20% 65–49 ✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State +0.7 153.3 55% 68–85 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne +0.5 135.8 52% 63–50 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland -0.2 159.5 57% 96–74 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena +2.0 140.4 63% 66–63 ✗
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah +6.7 155.7 77% 71–81 ✓
Air Force @ Wyoming +2.5 137.0 65% 75–69 ✗
New Mexico @ San José State +0.3 145.8 55% 96–68 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Grand Canyon +5.9 147.0 75% 84–94 ✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia +14.1 132.1 87% 55–57 ✓
Illinois @ Indiana +3.8 141.4 74% 68–71 ✓
Seton Hall @ UConn +10.8 136.5 87% 55–64 ✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia +6.2 148.3 72% 78–72 ✗
Boston College @ Florida State +0.9 146.2 55% 75–69 ✗
Rutgers @ Wisconsin -0.6 124.8 53% 58–57 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga +0.3 144.8 49% 93–76 ✗
William & Mary @ Northeastern +2.6 137.9 69% 57–69 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson +4.0 143.4 68% 75–76 ✓
Tennessee @ Kentucky -2.9 135.3 48% 54–66 ✗
Bucknell @ Boston University +2.5 135.9 65% 61–77 ✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire +0.3 137.0 53% 66–75 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +11.8 143.6 87% 70–84 ✓
South Carolina @ LSU +8.8 133.0 77% 82–73 ✗
Samford @ VMI -12.2 147.2 16% 96–61 ✓
Wofford @ The Citadel -2.0 147.7 45% 72–68 ✓
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut +1.1 131.3 55% 90–94 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University -6.2 145.7 22% 93–82 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Southern Miss +10.0 140.6 84% 62–73 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas +11.6 147.1 88% 83–85 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas State +2.3 137.2 70% 55–61 ✓
Wake Forest @ Miami +6.7 161.6 80% 87–96 ✓
Oklahoma State @ TCU +4.5 140.4 72% 75–100 ✓
Holy Cross @ Colgate +14.6 147.1 88% 73–96 ✓
Lehigh @ American University +4.2 135.0 67% 62–59 ✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State +14.0 148.7 88% 64–80 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine +8.8 140.6 82% 72–74 ✓
Florida @ Arkansas +6.3 142.3 75% 65–84 ✓
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island +1.1 140.0 62% 69–45 ✗
Presbyterian @ Campbell +7.4 132.3 78% 57–74 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +2.9 142.3 67% 71–68 ✗
Ohio @ Central Michigan -5.9 146.0 28% 76–59 ✓
Merrimack @ Sacred Heart +2.9 133.4 50% 67–55 ✗
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina +0.0 141.9 50% 78–75 ✗
Green Bay @ Youngstown State +21.9 147.9 91% 65–95 ✓
Elon @ Monmouth +1.0 137.6 48% 75–68 ✗
Queens University @ Kennesaw State +6.8 154.7 78% 83–76 ✗
Fordham @ VCU +5.9 136.2 73% 61–80 ✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan -8.7 148.9 22% 68–78 ✗
Charlotte @ Louisiana Tech +0.6 131.9 52% 74–67 ✗
UT Arlington @ Stephen F. Austin +8.8 138.9 82% 75–70 ✗
Radford @ Longwood +2.9 131.8 65% 63–73 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +3.2 137.9 69% 63–75 ✓
Georgia State @ Arkansas State -0.1 130.9 48% 70–75 ✗
South Dakota @ Denver +3.6 147.3 69% 68–86 ✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State +7.7 131.5 78% 58–71 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho +1.8 151.9 65% 72–50 ✗
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss -2.3 130.5 33% 69–61 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas +4.4 153.6 70% 71–87 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +13.8 157.5 88% 68–82 ✓
Howard @ Coppin State -4.5 160.8 27% 80–70 ✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +9.6 151.7 83% 62–78 ✓
Southern @ Grambling +3.4 135.6 66% 64–69 ✓
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +0.4 146.3 48% 75–60 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State -8.7 140.0 19% 66–58 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Missouri State +5.3 131.9 72% 69–66 ✗
Evansville @ Murray State +9.4 145.2 86% 58–74 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +11.3 136.3 86% 53–65 ✓
UAB @ UTSA -12.6 157.9 16% 83–78 ✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State +10.3 146.9 86% 50–72 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls +10.0 148.5 83% 74–84 ✓
La Salle @ George Mason +4.7 138.8 75% 66–70 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point -0.0 147.6 48% 66–81 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner +3.2 141.9 63% 66–48 ✗
UL Monroe @ South Alabama +11.5 134.5 87% 45–81 ✓
Old Dominion @ App State +1.2 130.6 56% 74–63 ✗
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech +0.1 152.2 49% 100–91 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware -1.2 140.0 45% 66–75 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Towson +11.1 145.2 88% 75–87 ✓
Drexel @ Hampton -7.7 137.7 25% 72–75 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine +8.3 146.9 80% 76–78 ✓
North Florida @ Austin Peay -2.3 144.8 42% 71–73 ✗
Villanova @ Providence +6.9 143.0 79% 72–85 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State +13.9 154.9 88% 68–65 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese -5.7 146.8 22% 77–54 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois +6.7 150.3 76% 66–65 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +0.8 147.6 55% 85–100 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Little Rock +2.7 150.5 63% 77–81 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech +1.6 149.1 58% 72–79 ✓
Colorado State @ Fresno State +0.7 136.7 49% 60–57 ✗
Toledo @ Bowling Green -8.3 161.3 22% 91–86 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State +2.7 158.4 64% 80–85 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington +8.4 156.3 83% 77–89 ✓
SE Louisiana @ East Texas A&M +0.3 150.1 53% 78–76 ✗
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -0.4 151.3 42% 75–67 ✓
Georgia @ Alabama +18.7 154.8 90% 59–108 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern +8.3 143.0 80% 62–80 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M +5.3 144.4 73% 56–90 ✓
Lafayette @ Army +2.5 134.1 65% 43–53 ✓
Utah @ Arizona State +2.1 133.8 64% 59–67 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +7.7 147.9 79% 58–69 ✓
Duke @ Syracuse -1.0 139.1 48% 77–55 ✓
Yale @ Princeton -0.9 144.3 46% 93–83 ✓
Harvard @ Cornell +5.9 152.9 70% 73–56 ✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania +3.0 144.8 73% 69–90 ✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri +1.6 153.2 62% 69–60 ✗
Liberty @ Jacksonville State -10.1 133.9 21% 79–55 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +2.3 150.1 66% 88–84 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M +4.7 140.4 69% 71–82 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama State +5.3 131.4 64% 60–54 ✗
Hofstra @ Stony Brook -12.5 133.2 13% 68–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.