I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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50–14 on winners spread MAE 7.3 64 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine -12.8 171.6 14% 97–88 ✓
Clemson @ Louisville -11.5 144.9 18% 73–83 ✗
Vermont @ NJIT -8.5 143.5 18% 82–80 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia -3.5 147.0 36% 65–71 ✗
Buffalo @ Akron +9.7 149.3 83% 66–86 ✓
Troy @ Marshall +8.3 147.3 76% 78–88 ✓
Louisiana @ James Madison +4.6 153.2 74% 68–74 ✓
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris +0.9 141.6 56% 60–80 ✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton +10.9 127.7 86% 62–83 ✓
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State +1.8 145.3 58% 70–67 ✗
Idaho State @ Sacramento State +3.2 133.3 64% 65–70 ✓
North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky +4.6 152.6 72% 98–93 ✗
Creighton @ St. John's -4.3 153.8 28% 77–67 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona +10.3 153.9 85% 68–78 ✓
Tulane @ South Florida -1.6 162.3 42% 84–66 ✓
Oregon State @ Washington +8.1 131.5 80% 47–61 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Rice +2.4 154.6 63% 77–83 ✓
Lamar @ Houston Christian +0.7 153.5 60% 74–93 ✓
Michigan State @ Michigan +1.7 135.7 59% 72–84 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Louis +2.8 146.1 64% 85–90 ✓
Nevada @ Utah State +3.9 144.8 70% 66–75 ✓
Sam Houston @ Tarleton State -4.2 131.1 33% 64–59 ✓
Utah Valley @ Seattle U -1.6 144.7 43% 67–58 ✓
Western Illinois @ St. Thomas +6.8 149.0 79% 69–82 ✓
North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts +15.6 156.0 88% 66–74 ✓
North Dakota @ Kansas City +2.4 136.0 63% 81–73 ✗
South Dakota State @ Omaha -4.4 148.8 33% 91–70 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside -0.2 141.2 51% 63–74 ✗
Jacksonville @ Lipscomb +4.5 133.1 65% 59–62 ✓
Auburn @ Vanderbilt -2.5 143.1 51% 65–67 ✗
Santa Clara @ Portland -2.0 158.6 40% 103–84 ✓
North Texas @ UTEP -5.3 126.7 21% 80–72 ✓
Penn State @ Minnesota -8.1 138.9 18% 76–69 ✓
Montana @ Montana State +5.6 132.8 71% 68–72 ✓
BYU @ Saint Mary's +11.5 137.5 87% 65–71 ✓
Stanford @ USC +7.8 144.9 80% 75–85 ✓
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +7.3 157.3 81% 88–90 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC San Diego +4.5 132.4 64% 62–75 ✓
Weber State @ Portland State +1.3 145.6 57% 65–57 ✗
California @ UCLA +24.6 128.3 91% 43–78 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +4.0 144.4 68% 73–71 ✗
Ohio State @ Purdue +9.6 140.1 84% 55–82 ✓
North Carolina @ NC State +4.4 154.7 75% 69–77 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Detroit Mercy +18.0 155.7 90% 68–81 ✓
Tulsa @ Temple +13.2 148.9 87% 53–76 ✓
Bradley @ Southern Illinois -2.7 128.9 36% 50–48 ✓
Iona @ Saint Peter's -11.6 131.9 15% 73–53 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +3.5 141.4 67% 88–90 ✓
Canisius @ Mount St. Mary's +1.8 143.2 61% 74–75 ✓
Niagara @ Marist -0.5 130.7 47% 52–61 ✗
Manhattan @ Fairfield +4.6 131.7 65% 73–72 ✗
George Washington @ St. Bonaventure +4.5 143.5 71% 83–81 ✗
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +0.1 153.6 54% 75–77 ✓
Memphis @ Houston +12.0 146.3 87% 64–72 ✓
East Carolina @ SMU +2.6 145.7 65% 70–86 ✓
Valparaiso @ UIC +2.1 145.7 59% 73–74 ✓
Georgetown @ Butler +8.4 135.9 80% 68–62 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +2.6 133.7 61% 63–64 ✓
Hartford @ Chicago State +11.6 133.8 88% 53–75 ✓
Belmont @ Drake +6.8 152.5 76% 56–70 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Bellarmine +6.8 146.6 77% 67–68 ✓
Maryland @ Nebraska -3.0 134.3 40% 66–70 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Furman +13.0 144.4 88% 79–83 ✓
Iowa @ Northwestern +2.0 145.8 59% 60–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.