Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -188 CIN +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -4.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -4.4 (-6.4) | 144.7 (-0.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -4.2 (-6.2) | 142.1 (+1.9) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -4.0 (-6.0) | 143.2 (+0.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -4.0 (-6.0) | 144.4 (-0.4) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UCF 66 – 65 CIN |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CIN 92 – 72 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCF 73 – 72 CIN |
| Apr 3, 2025 | UCF 88 – 80 CIN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CIN 93 – 83 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#54) | 8.9 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#77) | 0.83 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#75) | 1.14 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#90) | 0.537 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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