Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -225 GW +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +2 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -6.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -6.1 (-8.1) | 140.5 (+23.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -4.5 (-6.5) | 143.1 (+20.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -4.5 (-6.5) | 143.5 (+20.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -4.4 (-6.4) | 143.0 (+21.0) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GW 91 – 82 SBU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | GW 62 – 52 SBU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GW 86 – 75 SBU |
| Feb 26, 2021 | SBU 88 – 41 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#181) | -3.4 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#180) | -0.45 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#180) | -0.66 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#171) | 0.475 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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