Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | GW -298 SBU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +9 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | GW -10.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -8.5 (+0.5) | 154.7 (+18.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -10.1 (-1.1) | 154.2 (+18.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -10.5 (-1.5) | 155.9 (+17.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -10.5 (-1.5) | 155.6 (+17.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2025 | GW 62 – 52 SBU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GW 86 – 75 SBU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | GW 83 – 81 SBU |
| Feb 26, 2021 | SBU 88 – 41 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#65) | 1.3 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#133) | 0.06 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#115) | 0.20 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#110) | 0.518 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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