Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | SIU +100 BRAD -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +2 | 98 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -2.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.1 (-23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -2.9 (+0.9) | 129.3 (-31.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -2.4 (+0.4) | 126.4 (-28.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -2.5 (+0.5) | 128.3 (-30.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -2.7 (+0.7) | 128.9 (-30.9) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BRAD 70 – 60 SIU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | BRAD 73 – 69 SIU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BRAD 78 – 64 SIU |
| Dec 4, 2024 | BRAD 83 – 60 SIU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 67 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 16-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#131) | 8.2 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#89) | 1.09 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#114) | 1.24 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#69) | 0.574 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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