Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -148 BRAD +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -3.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -2.0 (-12.0) | 145.9 (-15.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -2.8 (-12.8) | 144.0 (-14.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -3.2 (-13.2) | 145.2 (-15.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -2.4 (-12.4) | 145.3 (-15.3) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | BRAD 73 – 69 SIU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BRAD 78 – 64 SIU |
| Dec 4, 2024 | BRAD 83 – 60 SIU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 67 SIU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | BRAD 70 – 69 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#113) | 3.0 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#182) | 0.48 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#174) | 0.48 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#183) | 0.533 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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