Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -270 SIU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -4.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -5.8 (-1.8) | 154.5 (-12.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -4.2 (-0.2) | 148.8 (-6.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -4.2 (-0.2) | 150.9 (-8.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -4.3 (-0.3) | 152.6 (-10.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BRAD 70 – 60 SIU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BRAD 78 – 64 SIU |
| Dec 4, 2024 | BRAD 83 – 60 SIU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 67 SIU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | BRAD 70 – 69 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#118) | 3.5 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#139) | -0.07 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#142) | 0.01 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#148) | 0.499 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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