Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SIU +155 BRAD -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +23 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -0.1 (-22.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -1.9 (-21.1) | 146.2 (-3.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -0.9 (-22.1) | 146.7 (-3.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -2.3 (-20.7) | 147.1 (-4.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -2.0 (-21.0) | 149.3 (-6.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BRAD 70 – 60 SIU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | BRAD 73 – 69 SIU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BRAD 78 – 64 SIU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 67 SIU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | BRAD 70 – 69 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#150) | 6.0 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#289) | 2.39 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#243) | 3.13 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#241) | 0.626 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 51.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 43.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 61.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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