Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -400 SIU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +19 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -6.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -5.7 (+13.3) | 137.6 (+15.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -5.9 (+13.1) | 136.1 (+16.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -6.0 (+13.0) | 136.7 (+16.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -6.0 (+13.0) | 137.5 (+15.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BRAD 70 – 60 SIU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | BRAD 73 – 69 SIU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BRAD 78 – 64 SIU |
| Dec 4, 2024 | BRAD 83 – 60 SIU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | BRAD 70 – 69 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#70) | 4.9 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#76) | 0.77 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#84) | 1.24 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#37) | 0.523 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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