Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | SIU +100 BRAD -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +1 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -1.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -1.4 (-2.4) | 133.8 (+5.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -1.4 (-2.4) | 134.1 (+4.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -1.4 (-2.4) | 135.3 (+3.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -1.5 (-2.5) | 136.0 (+3.0) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BRAD 70 – 60 SIU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | BRAD 73 – 69 SIU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BRAD 78 – 64 SIU |
| Dec 4, 2024 | BRAD 83 – 60 SIU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 67 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#97) | 8.1 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#122) | 1.20 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#109) | 1.49 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#139) | 0.586 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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