Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -154 UL +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -5.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -2.5 (+3.5) | 149.8 (-7.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -4.8 (+1.2) | 152.6 (-10.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -4.6 (+1.4) | 153.2 (-11.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -4.0 (+2.0) | 151.8 (-9.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | JMU 87 – 72 UL |
| Feb 5, 2026 | UL 64 – 61 JMU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | JMU 68 – 61 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-0 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#81) | 4.4 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#110) | 1.33 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#97) | 1.64 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#111) | 0.578 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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