Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | JMU -278 UL +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +15 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -6.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -8.0 (+7.0) | 130.8 (+28.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -7.1 (+7.9) | 129.7 (+29.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -7.0 (+8.0) | 130.7 (+28.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -7.2 (+7.8) | 131.5 (+27.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | UL 64 – 61 JMU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | JMU 68 – 61 UL |
| Feb 19, 2023 | JMU 74 – 68 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#219) | -10.0 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#182) | -1.24 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#187) | -1.67 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#131) | 0.448 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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