Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UL +250 JMU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +7 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -5.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (-34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -4.1 (-2.9) | 153.2 (-24.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -6.5 (-0.5) | 154.7 (-25.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -6.4 (-0.6) | 153.9 (-24.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -6.2 (-0.8) | 156.7 (-27.7) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | JMU 87 – 72 UL |
| Feb 5, 2026 | UL 64 – 61 JMU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | JMU 74 – 68 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 32-4 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-9 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#152) | 10.8 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#165) | 3.81 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#159) | 5.10 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#178) | 0.570 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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