Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | USC -250 STAN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +10 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | USC -7.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -7.7 (+2.3) | 145.0 (+15.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -7.0 (+3.0) | 139.0 (+21.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -7.4 (+2.6) | 142.6 (+17.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -7.8 (+2.2) | 144.9 (+15.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2024 | STAN 99 – 68 USC |
| Jan 6, 2024 | USC 93 – 79 STAN |
| Jan 28, 2022 | STAN 64 – 61 USC |
| Jan 11, 2022 | STAN 75 – 69 USC |
| Mar 4, 2021 | USC 79 – 42 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#51) | 5.8 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#55) | 0.05 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#57) | 0.34 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#45) | 0.471 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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