Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -138 USC +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +31 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -3.2 (+27.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -3.7 (+27.3) | 150.3 (+16.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -2.3 (+28.7) | 152.6 (+14.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -2.9 (+28.1) | 152.5 (+14.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -3.6 (+27.4) | 151.8 (+15.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 6, 2024 | USC 93 – 79 STAN |
| Feb 19, 2023 | USC 85 – 75 STAN |
| Jan 28, 2022 | STAN 64 – 61 USC |
| Jan 11, 2022 | STAN 75 – 69 USC |
| Mar 4, 2021 | USC 79 – 42 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#95) | 6.0 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#121) | 0.29 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#112) | 0.64 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#149) | 0.512 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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