Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +6 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | USC -6.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -6.3 (+12.3) | 140.1 (+3.9) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -4.1 (+10.1) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -5.9 (+11.9) | 140.4 (+3.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -5.2 (+11.2) | 139.6 (+4.4) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2024 | STAN 99 – 68 USC |
| Jan 6, 2024 | USC 93 – 79 STAN |
| Feb 19, 2023 | USC 85 – 75 STAN |
| Jan 28, 2022 | STAN 64 – 61 USC |
| Mar 4, 2021 | USC 79 – 42 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#113) | 14.7 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#60) | 4.24 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#66) | 5.64 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#38) | 0.647 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 40.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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