Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | MRST +130 NIA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +9 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -0.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -0.1 (+8.9) | 129.4 (-16.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -0.3 (+9.3) | 128.1 (-15.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -0.5 (+9.5) | 129.8 (-16.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.5 (+9.5) | 130.7 (-17.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-10 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#315) | -4.0 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#324) | -0.35 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#330) | -0.67 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#323) | 0.485 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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