Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UIC +100 VAL -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -2.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -1.7 (-0.7) | 145.7 (+1.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -0.3 (+0.7) | 145.2 (+1.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -2.1 (-1.1) | 144.6 (+2.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -2.1 (-1.1) | 145.7 (+1.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | VAL 71 – 67 UIC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | VAL 66 – 59 UIC |
| Mar 7, 2025 | VAL 67 – 50 UIC |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UIC 77 – 73 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UIC 81 – 74 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 5-15 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#293) | -6.6 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#286) | -0.95 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#285) | -1.25 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#308) | 0.449 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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