Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -163 MSU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +12 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -1.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -1.6 (+10.4) | 136.9 (+19.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -1.6 (+10.4) | 135.7 (+20.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -1.5 (+10.5) | 135.6 (+20.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -1.7 (+10.3) | 135.7 (+20.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MICH 90 – 80 MSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MICH 83 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | MSU 79 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSU 75 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MSU 73 – 63 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#64) | 10.9 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#74) | 2.09 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#54) | 2.58 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#103) | 0.588 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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