Betting Lines
| Spread | SAC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | SAC -163 IDST +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SAC -4.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAC -3.1 (+1.9) | 134.3 (+0.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAC -3.7 (+1.3) | 129.5 (+5.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -3.0 (+2.0) | 133.7 (+1.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAC -3.2 (+1.8) | 133.3 (+1.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SAC 83 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | IDST 97 – 84 SAC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IDST 83 – 66 SAC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAC 75 – 71 IDST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | IDST 68 – 40 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#228) | -4.9 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#247) | -1.42 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#244) | -1.25 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#250) | 0.417 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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