Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -200 MAN +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -7.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -4.6 (-5.6) | 132.1 (+12.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -4.2 (-5.2) | 133.2 (+11.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -4.4 (-5.4) | 132.5 (+12.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -4.6 (-5.6) | 131.7 (+13.3) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#230) | -7.3 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#255) | -1.43 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#256) | -1.84 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#228) | 0.443 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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