Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +35 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -27.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -24.6 (+10.4) | 130.4 (-9.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -21.6 (+13.4) | 127.5 (-6.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -22.0 (+13.0) | 129.9 (-8.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -24.6 (+10.4) | 128.3 (-7.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | CAL 80 – 72 UCLA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UCLA 61 – 60 CAL |
| Jan 7, 2024 | CAL 66 – 57 UCLA |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UCLA 81 – 57 CAL |
| Jan 9, 2022 | UCLA 60 – 52 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 2-18 |
| Home | 17-0 | 3-14 |
| Away | 9-2 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L16 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 58.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.7 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#4) | -4.8 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#9) | -1.80 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#8) | -1.74 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#6) | 0.417 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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