Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +285 UCLA -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -1.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -2.4 (+10.4) | 137.5 (+14.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -4.1 (+12.1) | 137.9 (+14.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -2.0 (+10.0) | 137.7 (+14.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -1.8 (+9.8) | 137.8 (+14.2) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2024 | UCLA 61 – 60 CAL |
| Jan 7, 2024 | CAL 66 – 57 UCLA |
| Feb 19, 2023 | UCLA 78 – 43 CAL |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UCLA 81 – 57 CAL |
| Jan 9, 2022 | UCLA 60 – 52 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 17-5 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#68) | 9.8 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#106) | 1.71 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#98) | 2.68 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#106) | 0.549 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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