Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +8 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | UCLA -7.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-28.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -5.1 (-2.9) | 139.6 (-27.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -7.6 (-0.4) | 136.4 (-24.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -4.8 (-3.2) | 139.7 (-27.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -5.4 (-2.6) | 139.0 (-27.0) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | CAL 80 – 72 UCLA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UCLA 61 – 60 CAL |
| Jan 7, 2024 | CAL 66 – 57 UCLA |
| Feb 19, 2023 | UCLA 78 – 43 CAL |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UCLA 81 – 57 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 64.5 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#118) | 14.8 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#138) | 3.26 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#120) | 4.32 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#164) | 0.627 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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