Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -115 UCLA -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +1 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -2.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -1.3 (-2.3) | 139.0 (-18.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -0.1 (-0.9) | 136.7 (-15.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -1.8 (-2.8) | 137.1 (-16.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -1.5 (-2.5) | 137.9 (-16.9) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | CAL 80 – 72 UCLA |
| Jan 7, 2024 | CAL 66 – 57 UCLA |
| Feb 19, 2023 | UCLA 78 – 43 CAL |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UCLA 81 – 57 CAL |
| Jan 9, 2022 | UCLA 60 – 52 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#114) | 5.1 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#152) | 0.61 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#122) | 0.97 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#170) | 0.511 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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