Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -250 MONT +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -6.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -5.5 (-1.5) | 132.5 (+7.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -6.1 (-2.1) | 130.3 (+9.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -5.1 (-1.1) | 132.5 (+7.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -5.6 (-1.6) | 132.8 (+7.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MTST 82 – 71 MONT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MTST 76 – 67 MONT |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MONT 89 – 85 MTST |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MONT 77 – 70 MTST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MTST 85 – 70 MONT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-7 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 10-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#117) | 0.5 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#117) | -0.01 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#116) | 0.11 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#95) | 0.516 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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