Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | TAR +130 SHSU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | SHSU -5.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -4.0 (-1.0) | 129.2 (-6.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -4.2 (-0.8) | 131.1 (-8.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -3.4 (-1.6) | 130.8 (-7.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -4.8 (-0.2) | 127.3 (-4.3) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | SHSU 91 – 62 TAR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | SHSU 75 – 68 TAR |
| Mar 4, 2022 | SHSU 69 – 50 TAR |
| Jan 7, 2022 | TAR 75 – 64 SHSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 2-12 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 61.7 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#175) | 8.3 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#149) | 1.55 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#152) | 1.63 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#133) | 0.575 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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