Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TAR +190 SHSU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +29 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -6.1 (-35.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -1.9 (-30.9) | 148.2 (+4.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -0.9 (-28.1) | 147.7 (+5.3) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2023 | SHSU 64 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | SHSU 75 – 68 TAR |
| Mar 4, 2022 | SHSU 69 – 50 TAR |
| Jan 7, 2022 | TAR 75 – 64 SHSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.2 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#308) | -1.2 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#210) | -0.48 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#220) | -0.67 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 46.2% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.35 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 30.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 40.8% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.7% | 66.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 60.6% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 39.6% |
Game Analysis
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