Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Over |
| Money | TAR -190 SHSU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -9.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -6.4 (+4.6) | 130.2 (+8.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -6.7 (+4.3) | 130.7 (+8.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -6.0 (+5.0) | 131.8 (+7.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -4.9 (+6.1) | 127.7 (+11.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | SHSU 91 – 62 TAR |
| Feb 19, 2023 | SHSU 64 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | SHSU 75 – 68 TAR |
| Mar 4, 2022 | SHSU 69 – 50 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 65.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 64.3 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#150) | -4.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#215) | -1.42 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#160) | -1.66 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#189) | 0.425 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 12.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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