The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Western Athletic Conference · Wisdom Gym · January 7, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread TAR -4.0 Home covered
O/U 123.0 Over
Money TAR -190 / SHSU +160
Model Predictions
Spread Total TAR win
Actual TAR +11 139 Won
Massey TAR -9.4 (+1.6)
Massey Totals 122.5 (+16.5)
Bradley-Terry 85%
Weighted B-T 93%
Baseline Plus ML TAR -6.4 (+4.6) 130.2 (+8.8) 76%
Baseline ML TAR -6.7 (+4.3) 130.7 (+8.3) 75%
Baseline Tuned ML TAR -6.0 (+5.0) 131.8 (+7.2) 75%
Efficiency Plus ML TAR -4.9 (+6.1) 127.7 (+11.3) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 10, 2024 SHSU 9162 TAR
Feb 19, 2023 SHSU 6459 TAR
Jan 7, 2023 SHSU 7568 TAR
Mar 4, 2022 SHSU 6950 TAR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TAR SHSU
Overall 14-17 19-14
Conference 9-9 13-5
Home 10-5 11-2
Away 4-12 5-8
Neutral 0-0 3-4
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 63.1 65.5
Avg Pts Against 65.8 64.3
Massey 0.9 (#150) -4.4 (#251)
Bradley-Terry -0.43 (#215) -1.42 (#286)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.16 (#160) -1.66 (#281)
RPI 0.491 (#189) 0.425 (#293)
Shooting & Four Factors TAR SHSU
FG% 40.3% 39.9%
3PT% 30.3% 33.6%
REB / G 28.2 37.1
OREB / G 7.9 13.7
AST / TO 0.82 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.8% 47.4%
TOV% 17.2% 19.2%
ORB% 23.3% 33.8%
FT Rate 20.2% 12.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.0% 53.9%
Opp TOV% 25.2% 20.9%
DRB% 68.2% 74.9%
Opp FT Rate 25.3% 30.3%

Game Analysis

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