Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SHSU -500 TAR +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SHSU -15.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -11.8 (-4.8) | 134.9 (+8.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -12.7 (-5.7) | 136.6 (+6.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -11.9 (-4.9) | 137.0 (+6.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -11.7 (-4.7) | 131.3 (+11.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | SHSU 91 – 62 TAR |
| Feb 19, 2023 | SHSU 64 – 59 TAR |
| Mar 4, 2022 | SHSU 69 – 50 TAR |
| Jan 7, 2022 | TAR 75 – 64 SHSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 10-6 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#38) | -0.5 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#51) | 0.11 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#57) | 0.07 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#42) | 0.514 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.1% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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