Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UCR +130 UCSB -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +11 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -0.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -0.3 (+10.7) | 139.1 (-2.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -0.0 (+11.0) | 135.2 (+1.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -0.7 (+10.3) | 139.9 (-2.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -0.2 (+11.2) | 141.2 (-4.2) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSB 70 – 59 UCR |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSB 76 – 68 UCR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCR 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCSB 66 – 63 UCR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCR 81 – 64 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#155) | 4.1 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#125) | 1.05 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#153) | 1.20 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#129) | 0.540 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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