Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP +750 GONZ -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +9 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -13.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -14.1 (+5.1) | 164.2 (+20.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -13.1 (+4.1) | 168.7 (+16.3) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -12.1 (+3.1) | 168.8 (+16.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -12.8 (+3.8) | 171.6 (+13.4) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | GONZ 84 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 29, 2025 | GONZ 96 – 56 PEPP |
| Feb 16, 2025 | GONZ 107 – 55 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GONZ 89 – 82 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2024 | GONZ 86 – 61 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 14-2 |
| Home | 8-8 | 15-1 |
| Away | 0-12 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 85.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#188) | 16.0 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#249) | 2.95 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#223) | 3.74 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#233) | 0.648 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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