Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -150 CAN +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -2.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -1.2 (-0.2) | 142.1 (+6.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -0.5 (+0.5) | 139.2 (+9.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -1.7 (-0.7) | 141.1 (+7.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -1.8 (-0.8) | 143.2 (+5.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | MSM 68 – 47 CAN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MSM 78 – 68 CAN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSM 73 – 66 CAN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | CAN 77 – 61 MSM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | CAN 61 – 56 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 5-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.8 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#284) | -5.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#312) | -1.47 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#312) | -1.68 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#301) | 0.449 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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