Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -340 CAN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +21 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -8.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -6.4 (+14.6) | 129.5 (-14.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -7.2 (+13.8) | 134.3 (-19.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -7.3 (+13.7) | 131.7 (-16.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -6.8 (+14.2) | 132.5 (-17.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MSM 78 – 68 CAN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSM 73 – 66 CAN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | CAN 77 – 61 MSM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | CAN 61 – 56 MSM |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MSM 74 – 69 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 62.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#302) | -14.5 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#260) | -1.99 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#273) | -2.52 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#250) | 0.422 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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